A Proposal for the Improvement of Project's Cost Predictability using Earned Value Management and Historical Data of Cost - An Empirical Study

This paper proposes an extension of the EVM technique through the integration of historical cost performance data of processes as a means to improve the predictability of projects cost. The proposed technique was evaluated through an empirical study, which evaluated the implementation of the proposed technique in 17 software development projects. The proposed technique has been applied in real projects with the aim of evaluating the accuracy and variation of the CPIAcum and consequently the EAC. Then it was compared to the traditional technique. Hypotheses tests with 90% significance level were performed, and the proposed technique was more accurate and more stable (less variation) than the traditional technique for calculating the Cost Performance Index CPI and the Estimates at Completion EAC.